Inflation rate is one of the
indicators that central banks observe and make decisions regarding monetary
policy changes. However, why economic growth is associated with the increased
industrial output due to higher prices and devaluation of currency instead of
increased productivity? Moreover, what is the relationship between the
inflation rate and nominal currency rate and the importance of the conventional
target of healthy inflation of 2 percentages?
The considerations will be made
by taking changes of the monetary policy of the ECB made on 2 May 2013 as an
example. According to the introductory statement to the press conference of the
Governing Council of the ECB released on 2 May 2013, the real GDP contracted by
0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012, following a decline of 0.1% in the third
quarter. The statement also revealed the decline of output for five consecutive
quarters and the decline of annual HICP inflation of euro area to 1.2% in April
2013 compared to the 1.7% in March. According to the monetary analysis section,
the annual growth in broad money was 2.6% in March compared to the increase of
3.1% in February and the annual growth rate of the narrow monetary aggregate,
M1, increased slightly further to 7.1% in March, reflecting the continued
preference for the most liquid instruments in M3. Moreover, while deposits with
the domestic money-holding sector continued to grow further in most stressed
countries in March, the annual growth rates of loans (adjusted for loan sales
and securitisation) to non-financial corporations and households have remained
broadly unchanged since the turn of the year, standing in March at -1.3% and 0.4%
respectively. So, the decision of the Governing Council of ECB to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing
operations of the Eurosystem by 25 basis points to 0.50% and the rate on the
marginal lending facility by 50 basis points to 1.00% was related to the
attempts to encourage development in the euro area. However, do the expectations
of keeping inflation rate close to 2 percentages define a healthy investment environment?
The ECB measures the stability
of domestic currency as the nominal effective exchange rate of euro which is
calculated as weighted averages of bilateral euro exchange rates against 20 trading
partners of the euro area. According to the statistical data of the ECB, the
daily nominal effective exchange rate of the euro in May 2013 lost its strength
by 10% during the last five years and is close to the average of 10 years (euro
value is up by 1.5%). However, considering the relationship between the
inflation rate and nominal currency rate during the last five years it appears
that correlation was -0.398. Moreover, healthy investment environment may be
considered the one in which the nominal interest rate is higher than inflation,
id. est. in order the investment generated returns inflation should be lower
than the remuneration of debt securities. The estimated annual inflation rate
of euro area was 1.2% in April while data of the euro area yield curve revealed
market remuneration rates on government debt securities with the maturity of
one year in range of 0.020% to -0.006%.
So, declined inflation rate might
be treated as market’s self-regulation mechanism in the context of economic
constrains. Slowing demand is a signal
to producers and suppliers of services to review the demand of production and
services as well as pricing policies those may end to the intensified consumption
after the cut of costs and prices.
Consequently, could the
inflation target of 2 percentages be released instead of cuts of interest
rates?
